This year could see Mugabe’s successor emerge once and for all, but who will it be? Mujuru has the numbers, but Mnangagwa has the powerful backers.
Barely half a year after Zimbabweans voted to keep ZANU-PF in power and maintain Robert Mugabe as president, another crucial election battle is raging, albeit this time behind the scenes and within the inner workings of the ruling party.
At almost 90 years old, few expect Mugabe to continue for too much longer and the struggle to be his replacement is in full swing. Furthermore, this competition is only likely to intensify as the party’s annual congress, which is to be held in December and at which the president’s successor will likely emerge, fast approaches.
After 33 years of Mugabe at the helm, the prospect of a new president is becoming all the more real, and the usually concealed power struggles within ZANU-PF are increasingly being played out in the national spotlight. Everyone seems to agree that the two main contenders are Vice-President Joice Mujuru and Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, and both appear to be ramping up their campaigns to take over the top job. But who or what will decide which candidate succeeds, and which hopeful has the upper hand?
Moderates vs. Old Guard?
At the core of the long running struggle for supremacy in ZANU-PF are two factional groups led by Mujuru and Mnangagwa. Mujuru’s side, sometimes referred to as ‘the moderates’, is a purportedly pro-business and centrist bloc that is seen as attempting to push ZANU-PF politics to the centre and improve relations with the international community.
Mnangagwa’s camp, the so-called ‘hard-liners’ or ‘old guard’, is mostly made up of an elite group believed to have dominated Zimbabwe’s political scene since the 1980s; many assume that this faction would seek to continue Mugabe-style politics, anti-western rhetoric and policies as well as continued authoritarianism.
This is possibly why Mujuru’s group fared much better than Mnangagwa’s in the party’s provincial elections at the end of 2013, with figures loyal to Mujuru winning control of nine out of Zimbabwe’s ten provinces, though it should be noted that the vote was marred by allegations of voter intimidation and fraud.
Nevertheless, Mujuru’s victory has injected much optimism within her camp, based on the fact that provincial chairpersons and their executives play a central role in electing the party’s national chairperson, two vice-presidents, and future presidential nominee. Indeed, Mujuru’s electoral victory in all but one of Zimbabwe’s provinces has understandably marked her out as the clear frontrunner for many observers. However, to think the struggle to succeed Mugabe is now effectively over would be to grossly misjudge ZANU-PF politics and Mnangagwa’s cunning and ambition.