If Mozambique’s ruling party candidate Filipe Nyusi wins tomorrow’s presidential elections as expected, he’ll take office under the shadow of his predecessor Armando Guebuza.
“Nyusi is basically Guebuza’s hand-picked successor,” Anne Fruhauf, Africa analyst at New York-based risk evaluator Teneo Intelligence, said by phone on Oct. 10. “Nyusi’s election would strengthen Guebuza’s ability to influence policy until at least 2017,” when the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, or Frelimo, next holds elections.
At stake in the election is who will run the country that may become the world’s third-largest gas producer by 2018 if Italy’s Eni SpA (ENI) and Woodlands, Texas-based Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) press ahead with plans to tap offshore reserves. Estimated at 250 trillion cubic feet by Mozambique’s national oil company, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, that’s enough to meet world consumption for more than two years,
Frelimo chose Nyusi as its presidential candidate at a congress in March ahead of Luisa Diogo, a former prime minister who was backed by a party faction led by Guebuza’s predecessor Joaquim Chissano. While Guebuza, 71, was ineligible for re-election after serving the maximum two terms, he retained the leadership of Frelimo.
Frelimo ‘Born’
Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the Mozambican National Resistance, or Renamo, and Daviz Simango, who heads the Mozambique Democratic Movement, were the only two other candidates to secure 10,000 signatures required to contest the presidential vote. The National Elections Commission registered 10.9 million voters, who will also elect the 250-member National Assembly and 10 provincial legislatures.
Nyusi, 55, “cannot do much because his selection was part of a pact among the big guys within the party,” Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Center for Public Integrity in Maputo, the capital, said in an Oct. 3 interview. “They have chosen someone that they know will do business as usual.”
Frelimo, which has ruled since 1975 and is widely credited for winning independence from colonial power Portugal after a decade-long war, currently has 191 parliamentary seats. Renamo has 51 and the MDM eight. Guebuza won 76 percent of the last presidential vote in 2009.
“I was born into Frelimo,” said Milagre Manhique, a 36-year-old engineering student at the Eduardo Mondlane University in Maputo, who wore a red T-shirt bearing Nyusi’s image. “I believe Nyusi can do a good job. The program he brings is Frelimo’s. Frelimo is going to guide him.”
Publicity Edge
Nyusi’s campaign funding edge is evident in Maputo and Beira, the nation’s second-largest city, where thousands of posters and giant billboards bearing his image adorn almost every street. State television has also devoted the bulk of its election coverage to his campaign and highlighted the Frelimo government’s achievements.
Mounting discontent over poverty and inequality may loosen Frelimo’s political stranglehold. While coal and gas discoveries have drawn an influx of foreign investment that’s driven average annual economic growth of 7.4 percent over the past decade, Standard Bank (STAN) Group Ltd., Africa’s largest lender, estimates about 90 percent of the population still live on less than $2 a day.
Nyusi’s candidacy may backfire on Frelimo, according to Robert Besseling, principal analyst at IHS Country Risk.
Charisma Deficit
“Nyusi lacks charisma,” Besseling said by phone from neighboring South Africa on Oct. 2. “Voters don’t know who he is, even in the Frelimo heartlands in the north. He’s not a populist politician and he’s not a great orator.”
Nyusi told about 4,000 supporters who gathered on a dusty field on the northern outskirts of Maputo on Oct. 12 for Frelimo’s final election rally he will improve the education system, create jobs, encourage foreign investment and stamp out corruption.
“The Frelimo message is still the same,” Nyusi, a trained mechanical engineer who was an executive director of the country’s northern railways, told the crowd. “No one will abuse power.”
Mozambique ranked 119 out of 175 countries surveyed in Berlin-based Transparency International’s 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index.
Guebuza, who says he plans to return to running his family conglomerate, which has interests ranging from construction to telecommunications, told the crowd Nyusi had the full backing of all Frelimo’s structures.
Living Conditions
“To vote for Frelimo and Nyusi is to vote for better living conditions,” Guebuza said. “Nyusi listens to the people and is ready to work with the people.”
Nyusi may be able to assert himself once in office, according to Thomas Hansen, an Africa analyst at Control Risks.
“You have a significant concentration of power in the office of the president,” Hansen said by phone from London on Oct. 2. “The moment you are elected you have increased personal influence.”
Renamo, which waged a 17-year civil war against Frelimo after independence, only began campaigning last month after the end of almost two years of sporadic clashes between its militiamen and government forces. An agreement to stop the violence gave Renamo a greater say in overseeing the elections and the right to integrate its fighters into the army.
Dhlakama Support
Previously, “Renamo rallies were made up mainly of old people,” said Michel Cahen, a French historian and author of several books on Mozambican politics, who expects Dhlakama to win the presidency. “Now there are thousands of young people coming out to support Dhlakama.”
A crowd of about 7,000 attended a Renamo rally in front of the main railway station in Beira on Oct. 8, while hundreds of people mobbed Dhlakama’s motorcade during campaign stops in Maputo on Oct. 11.
Dhlakama “cares about the poor,” said Ana-Maria Zacaria, who attended the Beira rally wearing a Renamo T-shirt and baseball cap. “Dhlakama will win and if he doesn’t we will take up arms.”
Simango, who is mayor of Beira, drew about 7,000 supporters to his final campaign rally in the city, where he pledged to improve health, education and government transparency if elected.
While Simango’s support is confined to the 30 percent of the population who live in urban areas, Dhlakama has a strong rural support base, according to Nelson Changwine, an associate professor at the Eduardo Mondlane University.
“It is difficult to predict how the election will go because we don’t know if all the people following Dhlakama will really vote for him or not,” Changwine said. “If Nyusi wins, I believe he will follow the same line as Guebuza. He doesn’t have enough power within Frelimo.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Bowker in Maputo at tbowker3@bloomberg.net; Mike Cohen in Maputo at mcohen21@bloomberg.net; William Felimao in Maputo at wfelimao@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net Karl Maier, Antony Sguazzin
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