In Summary
Poor turnout. In the 2011, 5.6 million registered voters stayed away from the poll -- representing a higher figure than the 5.4 million voters that turned up to vote for President Museveni and hand him a fourth elective term in office, writes Solomon Arinaitwe.
With less than 12 months to go before next year’s presidential election, there are concerns over whether Ugandans will honour their vote or stay away from the ballot, as figures from previous elections indicate that voters are growing weary of the ballot.
In the past four elections, voter turnout has been decreasing from 72 per cent in 1996 to 69.7 per cent in 2001, 69.2 per cent in 2006 before hitting a record low in 2011 with 57.1 per cent, according to figures computed by the Electoral Commission (EC).
In the 2011, 5.6 million registered voters stayed away from the poll -- representing a higher figure than the 5.4 million voters that turned up to vote for President Museveni and hand him a fourth elective term in office -- punching holes in the acceptability of the winner.
Up to 15 million Ugandans will be eligible to vote, according Ms Pamela Ankunda, the Internal Affairs ministry spokeswoman, quoting figures from the National ID project whose databank captured Ugandans of 16 years and above in the 2014 mass registration.
But with the unresolved dispute over the veracity of the voters register, figures provided by the Commission have to be treated with a pinch of salt.
An investigation conducted by this newspaper in the run-up to the 2006 elections discovered that there could have been up to 1.3 million ‘ghost’ voters who participated in the 2001 poll. Two Supreme Court rulings resulting from petitions against the 2001 and 2006 presidential results concluded that the two elections were marred by multiple voting, among many forms of vote rigging.
President Museveni has also been on record accusing the Electoral Commission of rigging votes. Compiling a new voter’s register is one of the major demands being made by the Opposition and civil society groups to guarantee free elections next year.
Nonetheless, the 1996 elections were bound to generate some excitement. Coming on the back of the post-1986 socio-economic stability that saw the election of a Constituent Assembly and promulgation of a new Constitution, more Ugandans had believed in the electoral process.
Before the 1996 presidential race, the last general election was in 1980, controversially won by the Uganda Peoples Congress, a result that was rejected by Mr Museveni who retreated to the Luweero Triangle and launched a rebellion in protest against the rigged polls.
With that euphoria, out of the 8.4 million voters that registered 6.1 million turned up for voting, with slightly more than two million voters being the only ones to shun the vote.
Mr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a History lecturer at Makerere University, says the 1996 election attracted high numbers because voters still had confidence that voting would count in determining political leadership.
“The fact is that in 1996 people still have a high expectation in the results .That the election could reflect the power of the vote but as time went on, people lost confidence in the power of the vote and they know their votes will not count,” Mr Ndebesa says.
Mr Augustine Ruzindana, a former senior member of the NRM and now the FDC secretary for research, says the 1996 election attracted a high voter turnout because of the sense of novelty that it triggered. In 1996, Ugandans had not voted in a presidential election for 16 years.
“Voting was still a novelty then. It was something that people had not got tired of. A section of the people still believed that there could be regime change,” Mr Ruzindana says.
But as the bliss that greeted the relative socio-political-economic stability ushered in by the NRM government faded away amid intrigue in top government echelons, corruption, questions over the democratisation process and the brutal war raged in northern Uganda, so did the numbers.
Post-86 successes were slowly being clawed back and so were the Ugandans willing to vote in the polls. With Dr Kizza Besigye breaking ranks with the regime and declaring a challenge on the presidency, Mr Museveni was facing the first lethal challenge on his stranglehold on power, which he reacted violently to-scaring away more voters, with evidence submitted to the Supreme Court.